Will Braylon Edwards make an impact in New York?

With the trade of Braylon Edwards from the Cleveland Browns to the New York Jets, a malcontent receiver was freed from the football purgatory of Cleveland and has landed in the big city lights of New York. To many this wasn't a huge surprise. Besides maybe Brandon Marshall, I'm not sure if there was a more openly "unhappy" receiver in the NFL. For the last 4+ seasons he's had to suffer through the inconsistent quarterback play, the lack of a running game, and the overall losing culture in Cleveland. Moving from the 0-4 Browns to the upstart 3-1 Jets should prove to be all the motivation he needs to step up his game.

Ah, if it were just that easy. Get traded from a bad team to a good team and immediately find success. So many people like to point to Randy Moss and say "look, he went from being a headcase for the Oakland Raiders to being a team player and an elite wide receiver for the New England Patriots, Edwards will surely do the same thing." However, I have some real issues with this reasoning. First of all, Moss had already put up great numbers with the Minnesota Vikings before being traded to the Raiders. So far in his short NFL career, Edwards has produced only one All-Pro season. Secondly, when Moss came over to New England, he had Tom Brady throwing passes to him. Although many believe Mark Sanchez to be the second-coming of Joe Namath, I think we would all agree that he's still a rookie quarterback with just four starts to his credit. He's not going to hit every read and deliver a perfect ball over the top and do all of the little things that come with experience. And lastly, he's coming on to a team in the middle of the season. This isn't like baseball where you can just suit-up, get inserted in the lineup, and go stand out in the outfield. Moss was traded during the off-season and had several months and a full training camp to get on the same page with Brady. It's going to take Edwards at least a few weeks to get up to speed on the offensive system in New York.

Let's be honest, there's no doubt that Edwards is in a much better situation in New York than he was in Cleveland, but let's not all get too far ahead of ourselves. He's probably not going to produce right away. But down the road, if the Jets can continue to play well, he could start to become a factor. And if Sanchez develops into the quarterback that many believe he can be, then perhaps we will start to talk about the Sanchez-Edwards combination among the leagues best quarterback/receiver tandems. But until that happens, let's have a quick reality check and remember that he hasn't proven anything yet.

Fantasy Impact: Obviously, the prospects of Edwards producing relevant fantasy numbers this season improved significantly with the trade to the Jets. He'll eventually be the #1 target in a very good, strong, balanced offense. But for the first 3-5 weeks, I wouldn't expect much more than 2-4 catches a game for 40-60 yards and maybe a TD. But later in the season, Edwards could be a fantasy boon if he and Sanchez start to make sweet music together through the air. If you need help in other areas on your team, I don't see his trade value getting any higher than it is right now, so maybe now you should be looking into some possible trade opportunities.

Can Thomas Jones do it again?

Even after setting a near career high last season in rushing yds (1312) and a career high in TD's (13) at the ripe old age of 30, there are a lot of people out there who doubt that Thomas Jones can do it again this year. Surprisingly durable and consistent over the last 5 seasons, Jones has averaged 290 carries, 1,185 rushing yds, and 7 TD's while only missing 3 games in that span. But even with that impressive track record, the stereotype of the 30-year-old running back who's lost a step and who's one injury away from being done for good is hard to shake. Both Jones and the New York Jets are hoping to prove the critics and naysayers wrong again this season.

After the first week of the season, I'd say he's off to a pretty good start with his 107 rushing yds and 2 TD effort against the Houston Texans. The real test, however, will be later in the season when the bumps and bruises start to pile up and we'll see whether he can avoid the type of career-threatening injury that has cut short other running back careers (i.e. Shaun Alexander). Personally, I love his running style and I'm rooting for him to succeed. He's not overly big or particularly flashy, but if you lose track of him for a second, he can rip off a 60-yd run just like that.

While 13 TD's is probably an unreasonable expectation this season, I do think he can still have a really good year. If he's healthy for the entire season, then I think you can count on another 1,000 yd. and 7 TD campaign. If he gets injured and misses a significant portion of the season, then I think he's probably done for good, released after the season or relegated to a Edgerrin James-type situation in New York next year. There's no doubt he can still produce when healthy, but it's just whether he can stay on the field and off of the trainers table.

Fantasy Impact: Jones was probably one of the highest value picks at the RB position in the draft this year. Taken on average in the 6th round in standard draft formats, he's the #1 guy in New York and coming off a career year. At that point in the draft, even if you only get 8 good games out of him before an injury, that's still worth it. And if he stays healthy the entire season, then it's a ridiculous value. While maybe not a marquee fantasy RB, he's the type of guy that eventual fantasy league champions ride all the way to the title.

Preseason Rankings: Rookies

The following series of posts will list the top 10 fantasy players based on projected fantasy output for the upcoming 2009 season.

This season's batch of rookies will have big shoes to fill after last season's group took the league by storm. Guys like Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and Matt Ryan all stepped right on the field as rookies and were immediate game-changers. A few guys on this list have that kind of potential this year, but it may come down to seizing the opportunity when it comes. Chris 'Beanie' Wells seems to have found himself a nice situation in Arizona with the Cardinals looking to establish more of a power running game. If he can avoid the IR, he should contribute right away. Matthew Stafford also finds himself with offensive weapons around him in Detroit, so the opportunity is there for an immediate impact. With Thomas Jones due for an injury, I expect Shonn Greene to be the man in New York by the end of the season. Also looks for Hakeem Nicks build a nice rapport with Eli Manning. I like Mark Sanchez and LeSean McCoy looking down the road, but I don't think they'll be factors this season.

1. Chris 'Beanie' Wells (ARI)
2. Matthew Stafford (DET)
3. Shonn Greene (NYJ)
4. Knowshon Moreno (DEN)
5. Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
6. Donald Brown (IND)
7. Mark Sanchez (NYJ)
8. LeSean McCoy (PHI)
9. Percy Harvin (MIN)
10. James Davis (CLE)

Fantasy Impact: Rookies are always such a tough group to draft because of the unpredictability. First of all, you don't know if they're good enough to play at the next level. Second of all, they're probably on a bad team in a bad situation. Thirdly, you never know how injuries might affect the situation (i.e. Rashard Mendenhall last year). If your in a single-season league then roll the dice will mid-round picks on guys like Wells and Moreno if you want, but be prepared to live with the possible consequences. My advice for legacy or keeper leagues would be to wait until the late rounds and pick up a guy like Jeremy Maclin or Glen Coffee who may not be a starter right now, but has the potential to be a starter down the road. You never know when an injury can open up the door of opportunity.