Friday, September 18, 2009

Can Thomas Jones do it again?

Even after setting a near career high last season in rushing yds (1312) and a career high in TD's (13) at the ripe old age of 30, there are a lot of people out there who doubt that Thomas Jones can do it again this year. Surprisingly durable and consistent over the last 5 seasons, Jones has averaged 290 carries, 1,185 rushing yds, and 7 TD's while only missing 3 games in that span. But even with that impressive track record, the stereotype of the 30-year-old running back who's lost a step and who's one injury away from being done for good is hard to shake. Both Jones and the New York Jets are hoping to prove the critics and naysayers wrong again this season.

After the first week of the season, I'd say he's off to a pretty good start with his 107 rushing yds and 2 TD effort against the Houston Texans. The real test, however, will be later in the season when the bumps and bruises start to pile up and we'll see whether he can avoid the type of career-threatening injury that has cut short other running back careers (i.e. Shaun Alexander). Personally, I love his running style and I'm rooting for him to succeed. He's not overly big or particularly flashy, but if you lose track of him for a second, he can rip off a 60-yd run just like that.

While 13 TD's is probably an unreasonable expectation this season, I do think he can still have a really good year. If he's healthy for the entire season, then I think you can count on another 1,000 yd. and 7 TD campaign. If he gets injured and misses a significant portion of the season, then I think he's probably done for good, released after the season or relegated to a Edgerrin James-type situation in New York next year. There's no doubt he can still produce when healthy, but it's just whether he can stay on the field and off of the trainers table.

Fantasy Impact: Jones was probably one of the highest value picks at the RB position in the draft this year. Taken on average in the 6th round in standard draft formats, he's the #1 guy in New York and coming off a career year. At that point in the draft, even if you only get 8 good games out of him before an injury, that's still worth it. And if he stays healthy the entire season, then it's a ridiculous value. While maybe not a marquee fantasy RB, he's the type of guy that eventual fantasy league champions ride all the way to the title.

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