Showing posts with label Buffalo Bills. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Buffalo Bills. Show all posts

Monday, October 26, 2009

Who needs TO when you've got Miles Austin?

Remember all those people who wondered what the Dallas Cowboys would do without Terrell Owens? How would they function without their big-time receiver? How would Tony Romo fare without his go-to guy? Well, I guess they have their answer. Who needs Owens when you've got Miles Austin racking up yards and TD's like the '01-'02 version of Owens when he had over 1400 yds. and 16 TD's for the San Francisco 49ers? Now Owens is wallowing up in the Buffalo while Austin and the Cowboys are starting to make some noise in the NFC East.

But even with Owens departure this past off season, Austin's emergence as the #1 receiver in Dallas still required a Roy Williams injury to fully materialize. Coming in to the Week 5 match-up against the Kansas City Chiefs, Austin had a total of 5 receptions and 81 total receiving yards. Not exactly game-breaking stats. But then he's thrust into the spotlight and delivers a Cowboy record-setting day (10 receptions, 250 receiving yards, 2 TD's) and then follows that up with 6 receptions, 171 yards and 2 TD's against the Atlanta Falcons.

So...is Austin for real? Can we expect him to put up big numbers every week? It's probably too early to tell, but he's off to a good start. The real test will come once Williams gets healthy, because then Austin will have to prove that he can make things happen with fewer looks. But even if his stats do drop off a little bit the rest of the season, he's already making people think...Terrell who? Right now he's all the production without all the drama. It's almost enough to make Owens wish he hadn't left Dallas.

Fantasy Impact: Austin is obviously the better fantasy receiver right now. He plays for decent, sometimes explosive, offense in Dallas, he's only 25-years-old, and he's built like an NFL receiver at 6'3" & 215 lbs. Not only is Owens playing for an inept offense in Buffalo, but he's going on 36-years-old and looks noticeably slower than in the past. Miles is definitely a trade-worthy acquisition and I'd put him in the 2nd-tier of WR's just behind Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Who's the best running back in Buffalo?

Two weeks into Fred Jackson's three-week audition as the starting running back for the Buffalo Bills and he's starting to make believers out of a lot of people. Against the New England Patriots in Week 1, he accounted for 130 total yards and a touchdown, then followed that up with an 188 yard performance against the Tampa Bay Bucs. Not bad for a guy who played college football at Coe College in Sioux City, Iowa, went undrafted, then played two seasons for the Sioux City Bandits of the National Indoor Football League, then played one season for the Rhein Fire of NFL Europa, and then finally got an invitation to the Buffalo's training camp in 2006. After a journey like that I'd say he's finally arrived.

But lets not forget about Marshawn Lynch. The guy who's basically carried the Bills offense the last two seasons, rushing for over a 1,000 yards and collecting at least 7 TD's in each season. Without much of a passing game, Lynch has had to consistently be the best player on the field and he's been able to answer the call. He's got a bruising downhill running style and an intensity that keeps his legs driving all the way through the run. It's not surprising that his teammates call him "The Beast" because he runs like one. As a pure running back, I'd put Lynch in the same conversation with top-tier backs like Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore, but unfortunately having success in the running game takes more than just a great running back.

It's always interesting how success in the running game is so dependent on success in the passing game, and I think Buffalo is a great example of this. With a healthy Trent Edwards playing well and Terrell Owens playing opposite long time go-to guy Lee Evans, Buffalo might just start getting some offense through the air. If that happens, then I think opposing defenses will have to soften up against the run and either Jackson or Lynch or a combination of the two will have a big season.

When Lynch's suspension ends after this weekend, I fully expect him to regain his role as the #1 running back in Buffalo. This might include a few more touches per game for Jackson moving forward, but Lynch is going to be the guy Buffalo leans on in the running game. Jackson's amazing journey to the NFL is truly remarkable, but to win games you've got to put the best guys on the field, your play-makers, and Lynch is one of those guys.

Fantasy Impact: Even after missing the first 3 games of the season, I'm still extremely high on Lynch and think that he'll reach 1,000 yds. and 7 TD's again by the end of the season. Given his current situation, he's certainly a buy-low candidate right now and is probably available in your league for the right price.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Draft Results - Downtown SJ League

With the start of the NFL season just around the corner, fantasy drafts are taking place all over the country. Having recently participated in two drafts of uniquely different formats, I wanted to share the results of the drafts, as well as my perspective of how the drafts went and any related draft strategy.

Here's a shout out to my compadres in the Downtown SJ League!

League Settings:
  • Host Site: ESPN
  • League Size: 8 Teams
  • Roster: QB, RB, RB, WR/RB, WR, WR, TE, K, DEF, B, B, B, B, B, B, B
  • Draft Type: Standard Snake Format (Offline)
Draft Results:

Round 1:

1. T. Brady (NE)
2. A. Peterson (MIN)
3. M. Jones-Drew (JAC)
4. M. Turner (ATL)
5. D. Brees (NO)
6. D. Williams (CAR)
7. P. Manning (IND)
8. M. Forte (CHI)

Looking at Round 1, what jumps out to me most is the fact that 3 Quarterback's went in the first 8 picks. Not only is this rare in standard 10-12 team leagues, but in an 8 team league it's almost unheardof. As a result of the mini-run on QB's, I had Adrian Peterson fall in my lap with the #2 pick.

Round 2:

9. C. Johnson (TEN)
10. S. Slaton (HOU)
11. D. McNabb (PHI)
12. L. Tomlinson (SD)
13. L. Fitzgerald (ARI)
14. A. Rodgers (GB)
15. C. Johnson (DET)
16. R. Moss (NE)

Another 2 QB's went off the board in Round 2, as well as the first Wide Receiver (Larry Fitzgerald) at pick #13. Having had the #2 overall pick, I wasn't sure what type of talent would be available when the snake got back around to me at #15, but I was pleasantly surprised to find Calvin Johnson still on the board. He's a big-time receiver who's coming into his "breakthrough" 3rd season in the league.

Round 3:

17. J. Cutler (CHI)
18. F. Gore (SF)
19. A. Johnson (HOU)
20. C. Portis (WAS)
21. T. Owens (BUF)
22. A. Boldin (ARI)
23. S. Smith (CAR)
24. G. Jennings (GB)

With Frank Gore still on the board at pick #18, I had to pull the trigger. I have him rated as the #2 overall running back coming into the season and I think he's going to put up big numbers. Round 3 also saw a run on WR's with 5 out of the last 6 picks being pass-catchers. Terrell Owens is probably the biggest stretch here, with his advancing age and the uncertain Buffalo offense.

Round 4:

25. R. White (ATL)
26. S. Jackson (STL)
27. M. Barber (DAL)
28. B. Westbrook (PHI)
29. B. Jacobs (NYG)
30. K. Smith (DET)
31. M. Colston (NO)
32. R. Grant (GB)

I like picking up Marques Colston in the Round 4, but the biggest steals have to be Steven Jackson and Brian Westbrook. To get that type of scoring potential in Round 4 is an amazing value. It's also interesting to see how far Marion Barber has fallen from last year when he was going in the mid to late first round in standard leagues.

Round 5:

33. R. Wayne (IND)
34. P. Rivers (SD)
35. R. Williams (DAL)
36. T. Gonzalez (ATL)
37. D. Bowe (KC)
38. A. Gates (SD)
39. B. Edwards (CLE)
40. R. Brown (MIA)

Round 5 is where I finally get my QB, drafting Philip Rivers at #34. In my mind he's just below Tom Brady and Drew Brees, so to get him 4 rounds later in the draft is a great value. Hopefully a healthy Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson will keep the San Diego offense firing on all cylanders all season long. Speaking of Gates, the top 2 Tight Ends came off the board with Tony Gonzalez going first at pick #36.

Round 6:

41. K. Warner (ATL)
42. P. Thomas (NO)
43. K Moreno (DEN)
44. J. Stewart (CAR)
45. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (SEA)
46. A. Gonzalez (IND)
47. J. Witten (DAL)
48. D. Hester (CHI)

Round 6 was my turn to draft a TE, going with Jason Witten at pick #47. With Terrell Owens now in Buffalo, Tony Romo will be relying even more heavily on Witten in the passing game. No real surprises in this round, other than maybe Devin Hester going a little sooner than I would expect.

Round 7:

49. K. Winslow (TB)
50. D. McFadden (OAK)
51. B. Roethlisberger (PIT)
52. M. Ryan (ATL)
53. S. Moss (WAS)
54. B. Berrian (MIN)
55. V. Davis (SF)
56. T. Romo (DAL)

Round 8:

57. D. Clark (IND)
58. M. Schaub (HOU)
59. M. Hasselbeck (SEA)
60. T. Edwards (BUF)
61. T. Jones (NYJ)
62. G. Olsen (CHI)
63. M. Lynch (BUF)
64. J. Addai (IND)

In Rounds 7 & 8, I was able to stock up at the Running Back position by taking Darren McFadden and Marshawn Lynch. McFadden has all the skills to have a breakout season in Oakland and I can afford to wait for Lynch to come back from his 3-game suspension. Vernon Davis is probably the only reach at pick # 55.

Round 9:

65. L. Johnson (KC)
66. B. Marshall (DEN)
67. D. Ward (TB)
68. W. Welker (NE)
69. D. Sproles (SD)
70. S. Holmes (PIT)
71. E. Royal (DEN)
72. V. Jackson (SD)

Round 10:

73. D. Jackson (PHI)
74. J. Nedney (SF)
75. L. White (TEN)
76. O. Daniels (HOU)
77. C. Ochocinco (CIN)
78. H. Ward (PIT)
79. R. Rice (BAL)
80. C. Benson (CIN)

Having already drafted Johnson and Colston, I felt pretty comfortable drafting Brandon Marshall in Round 9. I won't be relying on him early, but with all of his talent he could be a factor later in the season. With all of the positive buzz surrounding Ray Rice this preseason, I was also very surprised to find him still available at pick #79. With the way Baltimore likes to run the ball, he could have a very good season.

Round 11:

81. S. Gostkowski (NE)
82. F. Jones (DAL)
83. R. Mendenhall (PIT)
84. W. Parker (PIT)
85. Ravens D/ST
86. Giants D/ST
87. R. Bush (NO)
88. C. Wells (ARI)

Round 12:

89. D. Brown (IND)
90. 49ers D/ST
91. P. Harvin (MIN)
92. A. Bryant (TB)
93. C. Palmer (CIN)
94. Patriots D/ST
95. L. Evans (BUF)
96. Steelers D/ST

Another value pick with Felix Jones in Round 11. I could have gone with Rashard Mendenhall here because I think both guys have the potential to put up points this season, but I ended up going with Jones. Snagging Lee Evans at pick #95 is a nice value now that he'll be playing across from Terrell Owens. If Trent Edwards stays healthy, I like Evans' chances at a 1000 yd. season.

Round 13:

97. J. Cotchery (NYJ)
98. L. McCoy (PHI)
99. J. Lewis (CLE)
100. C. Cooley (WAS)
101. M. Crosby (GB)
102. D. Mason (BAL)
103. G. Coffee (SF)
104. J. Carlson (SEA)

Round 14:

105. K. Walter (HOU)
106. M. Crabtree (SF)
107. D. Akers (PHI)
108. L. Coles (CIN)
109. Titans D/ST
110. A. Bradshaw (NYG)
111. E. Manning (NYG)
112. J. Norwood (ATL)

Probably the biggest mistake of the draft for me was taking LeSean McCoy instead of Glen Coffee in Round 13. Nothing against McCoy, but having Coffee as insurance for Gore would have been the smart move here. Getting Eli Manning in Round 14 is also a nice value pick for a back-up QB. His receiving options are uncertain right now, but he's a proven leader and New York should still have an excellent ground game this year.

Round 15:

113. C. Taylor (MIN)
114. Eagles D/ST
115. T. Holt (JAC)
116. N. Kaeding (SD)
117. T. Choice (DAL)
118. M. Bush (OAK)
119. D. Avery (STL)
120. R. Longwell (MIN)

Round 16:

121. Vikings D/ST
122. J. Morgan (SF)
123. P. Crayton (DAL)
124. Z. Miller (OAK)
125. L. McClain (BAL)
126. K. Brown (HOU)
127. R. Bironas (TEN)
128. D. Driver (GB)

The last 2 rounds are roster fillers. I like the Philadelphia defense and Rob Bironas has one of the biggest legs in the league. Not a bad way to round out my team.

Overall I thought I came away with some absolute steals. From Peterson in Round 1 to Gore in Round 3 and Rivers in Round 5 to Rice in Round 9, I think my roster looks pretty formidable. Only time will tell.